Losing To Draws Or Handpower Disparity In Round 3


Gwent is a card game with all consequences. Sometimes even perfect play would not matter when draw RNG is in opponent’s favor. After GM&P5: Thinning we have all tools needed to analyze handpower disparity between two players.

This article would not be an ultimate study on draws impact, but just a short presentation of Round 3 disparities in number of desired cards drawn.


  • Coin is included – one player is blue, the other red
  • Thinning is a variable. Only reduction-type R1 thinning is considered. Results from GM&P5: Thinning are the starting point (also look up this article if you don’t know what reduction-type means ;-)). Same thinning obeys for both players.
  • Both players want to draw 10 cards building up a perfect hand. The is no power difference assumed between those cards (consequently results resemble reality less, but are based on fewer assumptions)
  • Disparity equals the absolute difference in the number of desired cards drawn between both players.


The most usual Round 3 situation is one player drawing exactly one good card more (42.6% of time in case of zero thinning). This scenario becomes even more probable the more cards are thinned out; perfect balance ‘0’ probability grows at the expense of high disparity tail rather ‘1’.

Every 4th game played without thinning from both sides end up in perfectly balanced R3. On the other hand, in more than 30% of games, the disparity is equal to 2 or higher. Almost 10% of games (1  per 10) ends up in a big handicap to one side (+3 slice).

The general quality of draws as presented here is especially important in mirror matches of midrange decks.

Results like these could be used to estimate skill impact in the game of Gwent or particular matchups. For example if going for a long round is the only line, and disparity=2 is enough to favor one side, then ‘tactical skill cap’ would be equal to ~85%wr (because half of high disparity scenarios favors opponent).


Thanks for reading and Happy Easter!

Also regards to Spyro for permission to use this featured image 😉

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